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43 <br /> Section II Attachment II.B.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2016-17) <br /> (page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br /> School Membership 2016-2017 School Year (November 15, 2016) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 65 students below to 35 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 15 students lower than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 66 students between November 13, 2015 and <br /> November 15, 2016. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 54 students below to 54 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 1 student higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 15 students between November 13, 2015 and <br /> November 15, 2016. <br /> High School Level <br /> • The majority of projections were low, ranging from 30 to 5 students below actual <br /> membership. One projection was 30 students above actual membership. On average, <br /> the projections were 5 students lower than the actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 61 students between November 13, 2015 and <br /> November 15, 2016. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The total of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 149 students below to <br /> 114 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 19 students <br /> lower than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership increased in total by 112 students, which is the sum of+66 at <br /> Elementary, -15 at Middle, and +61 at High. <br /> 28 <br />