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41 <br /> Section II Attachment II.B.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2016-17) <br /> (page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2016-2017 School Year (November 15, 2016) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • The projections were mixed low to high, ranging from 5 students below to 83 students <br /> above actual membership. On average, the projections were 32 students higher than <br /> the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 25 students between November 13, 2015 and <br /> November 15, 2016. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • The majority of projections were all high, ranging from 2 students to 45 students above <br /> actual membership. One projection equaled actual membership. On average, the <br /> projections were 19 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 15 students between November 13, 2015 and <br /> November 15, 2016. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 32 to 73 students above actual membership. On <br /> average, the projections were 58 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 23 students between November 13, 2015 and <br /> November 15, 2016. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 54 to 193 students <br /> above actual membership. On average, the projections were 109 students higher than <br /> the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 63 students, which is the sum of-25 at <br /> Elementary, -15 at Middle, and -23 at High. <br /> 26 <br />