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39 <br /> Section II Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2015-16) <br /> (page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br /> School Membership 2015-2016 School Year (November 13, 2015) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 72 students to 140 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 105 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 40 students between November 14, 2014 and <br /> November 13, 2015. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 30 students to 66 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 51 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 17 students between November 14, 2014 and <br /> November 13, 2015. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 5 students below to 117 students above actual <br /> membership. One projection equaled actual membership. On average, the projections <br /> were 41 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 29 students between November 14, 2014 and <br /> November 13, 2015. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The total of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 97 students to 311 <br /> students above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 197 <br /> students. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 86 students, which is the sum of-40 at <br /> Elementary, -17 at Middle, and -29 at High. <br /> 24 <br />