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34 <br /> Section II <br /> B. Student Membership Projection Methodology <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and <br /> recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br /> Advisory Committee(SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary. <br /> 2. Definition— The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future <br /> years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, <br /> Middle, and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals <br /> at a specific time (November 15)in the school year. These methods are also known as <br /> 'models'. <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel HilUCarrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10 year <br /> history/cohort survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and <br /> Tischler Linear methods. Attachment II.B.1 includes a description of each model. <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br /> Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is <br /> in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity <br /> shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan (CIP)updates can respond <br /> proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.1 includes a <br /> description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models <br /> for the 2015-16 school year from the prior year projection. <br /> 5. Recommendation: <br /> More than ten years of projection results are now available. Analysis on the accuracy <br /> of the results is showing that some models have better results in one district while <br /> others have better results in the other district. The historic growth rate is recorded by <br /> the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to accurately quantify. In all <br /> areas of the county,proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO projection system <br /> until actual students begin enrollment. The system is updated in November of each <br /> year, becoming part of the historical projection base. <br /> 19 <br />