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11 <br /> - TIFIA principal payment deferred an additional 3 years <br /> • Increased assumed interest rates to a more conservative 4% for the LOBs and 5% for <br /> the TIFIA Loan <br /> What is the Base Case? <br /> • The base case is the expected scenario for costs and revenue growth <br /> - Expected sales tax growth as provided by Moody's <br /> - More conservative financing cost than previously presented and significantly <br /> higher than available today <br /> - State participation at 10% <br /> • Includes all of the elements from the Original Orange County Bus and Rail Investment <br /> Plan <br /> - GoTriangle's existing and expansion bus services and capital investments <br /> - Local share of CHT and OPT's expansion bus services and capital investments <br /> per the D-O Transit Plans, funded at a higher level than in the original D-O <br /> Transit Plans <br /> - North-South Corridor Bus Rapid Transit (N-S BRT) Project, managed by Chapel <br /> Hill Transit <br /> - D-O LRT Project <br /> - Hillsborough Train Station <br /> - NCCU Station <br /> • Does not include: <br /> - Durham-Wake Commuter Rail Project <br /> Accounting for Uncertainties <br /> • Significant contingency in D-O LRT capital cost <br /> • Cash Reserves for Operating and State of Good Repair <br /> • Sensitivity Analyses requires some additional local revenue or cost mitigation <br /> - 10% capital cost increase for D-O LRT Project (similar to 0% state funding <br /> share) <br /> - Lower-than-expected sales tax revenues <br /> - Higher than anticipated interest rates <br /> • Working with local government partners and Funding and Community Collaborative to <br /> develop plan to address sensitivity scenarios <br /> - Financial Summit held 1-18-17 <br /> - Continuing work with Staff Working Group to update County Transit Plans — <br /> update expected this Spring <br /> The Original D-O LRT Project Cost has increased by 4% since 2011 D-O LRT Proposed <br /> Budget. <br /> Commissioner Price said GoTriangle has a new scenario that pushes financing out <br /> three years. She asked if this will last over time. <br /> Danny Rogers said it had to be pushed out so that financing would work. He said the <br /> TIFIA (Transportation Innovative Finance Infrastructure Act) loan is a long-term loan that would <br /> start after the project is complete, and would be paid off over time. He said the LOBs (Limited <br /> Obligation Bonds) would be shorter term, and would happen while the project is under <br /> construction, being paid off before the TIFIA loan begins. He said this allows the funds <br />