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25 <br /> — Assumes maximum borrowing while maintaining minimum 1.15x net debt <br /> service coverage ratio (DSCR) <br /> — Assumes reserves have been fully funded (operating, debt service, capital asset <br /> management) <br /> — Funding for expanded Bus Operations, revised Chapel Hill BRT project, and <br /> NCCU Station included in analysis <br /> Base Case (FTA Cap = $1.25 mil/year) <br /> Scenario #1 (FTA Cap = $100 mil/year) <br /> Ways to Resolve the Funding Gap <br /> Scenario 1: 10% State Funding, Walden 2014 Forecast, $100M FTA Cap <br /> Next Steps <br /> • Obtain approval to submit financial plan to FTA that includes planned additional local <br /> funding by December 10, 2016. <br /> • Continue to work with local partners to define details of additional local revenue <br /> sources to have available for reference prior to approving Final Design phase of <br /> General <br /> • Engineering Consultant contract in April 2017. <br /> Chair McKee said he would like to discuss this portion first. <br /> Chair McKee said it has been his ongoing concern that the only alternative financing <br /> would be from a few resources, and the majority of it would come from Orange County and <br /> Durham, in the amount of$175 million. He asked if this is accurate. <br /> Danny Rogers said that is accurate if this plan stays in place, but time is needed to get <br /> through the evaluations. <br /> Chair McKee referred to the slide the mentions the revenues percentage projections for <br /> the sales tax increases, and he said he questioned a 5% increase has been achieved every <br /> year, and he thinks they have been fairly flat over the last 2-3 years. <br /> Danny Rogers said that is correct, but over 10 years there was growth of 5.7%. He <br /> said that is over a longer period of time. <br /> Chair McKee said he questions if the County will ever reach these consistent <br /> percentages. <br /> Danny Rogers said a more current update on this question is being gathered. He said <br /> the numbers are lower for Orange County, and a bit higher for Durham County. <br /> Chair McKee asked if the current projected total cost for the light rail could be clarified. <br /> Danny Rogers said that is a complicated question, but the total cost in current dollars is <br /> $1.6 billion. He said it is a goal to add the NCCU extension, which would be about $90-110 <br /> million. He said joint development can be included in the project, such as affordable housing, <br /> to help leverage federal dollars. He said current efforts are looking at how to build the project, <br /> with an original goal of finishing in 2026. He said one thing that is affecting the ability to pay <br /> for the project is whether $100 million or $125 million is received. He said the gap of$25 <br /> million gets exacerbated when the construction period does not match the reimbursement <br /> period. He said the construction period has been extended a few years, to better match the <br /> expenditures with the revenues; but doing this increases inflation by about $2.3 billion, if the <br /> project is completed in 2028. <br /> Commissioner Rich asked if the increase on the Chapel Hill BRT could be identified. <br />