Agenda - 01-24-2017 - 6-a - Minutes

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24 1 • State: 25% - 0% 2 • Local/Other: 25% - 30% 3 4 Hillsborough Train Station 5 • State: 90% - 91% 6 • Local: 10% - 9% 7 • Local Transit Revenues 8 (Shared by Bus and Rail) 9 10 Sales Tax by Article (graph) 11 12 D-O LRT Capital Funding Sources (chart) 13 14 Financial Model Notes 15 1. Both scenarios use forecasts developed by Dr. Walden in 2014 16 2. Baseline Scenario assumes FTA disbursements of$125 million per year 17 3. Scenario One reduces FTA disbursements to $100 million per year 18 4. All Scenarios assume 10% State participation 19 20 Funding Gap 21 Gap = Lowest projected cash balance in system cash flow 22 — Assumes maximum borrowing while maintaining minimum 1.15x net debt service 23 coverage ratio (DSCR) 24 — Assumes reserves have been fully funded (operating, debt service, capital asset 25 management) 26 — Funding for expanded Bus Operations, revised Chapel Hill BRT project, and 27 NCCU Station included in analysis 28 29 Base Case (FTA Cap = $1.25 mil/year) 30 31 Scenario #1 (FTA Cap = $100 mil/year) 32 33 Ways to Resolve the Funding Gap 34 Scenario 1: 10% State Funding, Walden 2014 Forecast, $100M FTA Cap 35 36 Next Steps 37 • Obtain approval to submit financial plan to FTA that includes planned additional local 38 funding by December 10, 2016. 39 • Continue to work with local partners to define details of additional local revenue sources 40 to have available for reference prior to approving Final Design phase of General 41 • Engineering Consultant contract in April 2017. 42 43 Chair McKee said he would like to discuss this portion first. 44 Chair McKee said it has been his ongoing concern that the only alternative financing 45 would be from a few resources, and the majority of it would come from Orange County and 46 Durham, in the amount of$175 million. He asked if this is accurate. 47 Danny Rogers said that is accurate if this plan stays in place, but time is needed to get 48 through the evaluations.