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3 <br /> Sixty percent of this tax base shortfall, or $30 million, is in the <br /> personal property component of the tax base . We had projected what we <br /> felt a reasonable growth factor of 5 percent in personal property, in <br /> keeping with our experience in recent years . Instead, we are seeing a <br /> decline in this component of the tax base of about 1 to 2 percent . It <br /> appears we underestimated the impact of the recession in 1991 on local <br /> business and personal property acquisition decisions . Figures obtained <br /> by the County Assessor indicate that only 1, 700 new cars were <br /> registered in Orange County in 1991, compared to the 3, 900 vehicles <br /> that might have been expected. <br /> The shortfall in real property, which is approximately $20 million, is <br /> largely attributed to a slower rate of growth than originally <br /> projected, and a larger portion of private property converted to public <br /> purpose (e .g Department of Transportation right-of-way- along the <br /> Interstate 85 corridor and 15-501) and therefore exempted from payment <br /> of property taxes . <br /> Investment Earnings <br /> The other revenue shortfall we anticipate this current year is interest <br /> earned on the County' s investments . Last year when the budget was <br /> being developed, we were earning interest in the range of 4 to 4 . 5 • <br /> percent . Estimated earnings for the current year were based on the <br /> lower end of this range . Throughout the year, interest rates have <br /> declined and our current earning rates are in the 2 . 5 to 3 percent <br /> range . State statutes limit investment of public fund in secure and <br /> risk-free investments, thus our interest rate is lower than the more <br /> risky and/or long-term investment areas . <br /> The current budgeted amount for investments is $538, 000 . We are <br /> estimating that we will fall a couple hundred thousand short of this <br /> budgeted amount . <br /> Revenues Exceeding Budgeted Amounts <br /> Offsetting a large portion of these shortages are charges for services, <br /> particularly in the Office of the Register of Deeds and in the <br /> Sheriff' s Department . In addition, intergovernmental revenues in the <br /> Department of Social Services will exceed the budgeted amounts, largely <br /> because of Medicaid reimbursements and higher than anticipated indirect <br /> costs payments . <br /> We are also projecting that we will exceed the budgeted amounts in <br /> sales tax receipts . The one cent sales tax, which is used for general <br /> operations of County government is projected to exceed the budgeted <br /> amount for this revenue source by approximately $200, 000 . The two one <br /> half cent sales taxes combined, are projected to exceed the budget by <br /> roughly the same amount . Unless you or the Board of Commissioners <br /> indicate disapproval of this approach, we propose that any half-cent <br /> sales tax revenue above the budgeted figure be retained in the General <br />