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Attachment 1 4
<br /> Draft 2045 MTP Guide Totals Edited:August 15,2016
<br /> These are the preliminary 2045 MTP guide totals,using the same analysis process as was used in Imagine 2040. The population projections are for the full counties in the MTP region.Using the 2013
<br /> estimates from the N.C.Office of State Budget and Management,and their projections out to 2035,projected growth was extrapolated out to 2045. The net households added to the region between
<br /> 2013 and 2045 were calculated using the population numbers,the single-family/multi-family splits from Imagine 2040,and average household size for each from the 2010-2014 ACS. The net
<br /> households added are for the full counties as well. The employment projections are calculated for the TRM region only. Growth rates were calculated from Woods&Poole's employment projections,
<br /> as they are the only data source that projects out to 2045. However,given concerns that their employment numbers tend to be high,the base 2013 data comes from InfoUSA data that has been
<br /> cleaned and verified by local planners through Employment Analyst.The Woods&Poole growth rates were applied to the 2013 Employment Analyst base data to provide 2025 and 2045 employment
<br /> estimates.
<br /> Net Households Added
<br /> 2025 2045
<br /> County 2013 2025 2045 County Total SF IMF Total SF IM IF
<br /> Chatham 67,587 81,136 105,958 Chatham 5,367 4,991 376 15,198 14,135 1,064
<br /> Durham 286,210 353,649 475,091 Durham 26,246 17,060 9,186 73,509 47,781 25,728
<br /> Franklin 62,715 69,923 83,313 Franklin 2,811 2,727 84 8,033 7,792 241
<br /> Granville 57,844 60,188 64,391 Granvillel 855 778 77 2,388 2,173 215
<br /> Harnettl 123,432 150,535 200,131 Harnett 9,577 8,715 862 27,102 24,663 2,439
<br /> Johnston 177,312 222,091 314,100 Johnston 15,515 14,584 931 47,394 44,550 2,844
<br /> Nash 94,633 92,429 88,239 Nash (860) (740) (120) (2,495) (2,146) (349)
<br /> Orange 139,289 158,244 194,867 Orange 7,831 5,090 2,741 22,961 14,925 8,036
<br /> Person 39,158 39,791 40,353 Person 243 234 10 459 441 18
<br /> Wake 964,934 1,206,046 1,647,536 Wake 90,135 63,095 27,041 255,178 178,625 76,553
<br /> Total 2,013,114 2,434,032 3,213,980 Total 157,720 116,533 41,187 449,728 332,938 116,790
<br /> From NC OSBM projections dated 08Oct2015,extrapolated to 2045 Steps used:
<br /> 1 Used population numbers to determine net added population
<br /> 2 Applied proportions of SF/MF housing units,from Imagine 2040 process
<br /> 3 Applied average household size of SF/MF units,from 2010-2014 ACS 5-Year estimates
<br /> County 2013 2025 2045 4 Calculated net new occupied units(full calculations on"Households"tab
<br /> Chatham 9,374 12,163 17,784
<br /> Durham 227,924 289,559 405,219
<br /> Franklin 14,617 18,449 25,218
<br /> Granville 8,576 10,128 12,325
<br /> Harnettl 5,704 7,165 9,639
<br /> Johnston 43,960 55,009 72,331
<br /> Nash 335 386 444
<br /> Orange 66,405 83,666 111,473
<br /> Person 9,988 10,957 11,692
<br /> Wake 552,018 715,817 1,025,938
<br /> Total 1 938,901 1,203,298 1,692,063
<br /> Note,this is for the TRM area only
<br /> Steps used:
<br /> 1 2013 employment from Employment Analyst
<br /> 2 2025 and 2045 employment reached by applying Woods&Poole's rates of employment growth from their 2015 data book from 2013-2025 and 2013-2045
<br /> Calculations completed by TJCOG staff
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