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2 <br /> and change in development intensities influence the current and proposed transportation <br /> network. The modeling process, which is updated every four years as part of the MTP <br /> process, is presented graphically in Attachment 2. <br /> Role of Guide Totals <br /> Guide totals, representing the future year (2045) employment and population projections, <br /> play an important role in the modeling process. The guide totals, presented in Attachment <br /> 1, serve as the future demand in the entire county, essentially, the projected amount of <br /> growth in population and employment slated to occur. In order for the model to function <br /> correctly, all new growth must be accommodated in the county, i.e. each parcel will receive <br /> either employment or population growth based on the type of land use and availability for <br /> development and the suitability of the specific parcel for development. The parcels that are <br /> suitable for new development represent the future supply; all of the future growth in <br /> population and employment (demand) must be accommodated in the county for the model <br /> to function correctly. <br /> Population Forecasts <br /> The population forecasts for Orange County use the North Carolina Office of State Budget <br /> and Management (NC OSBM) methodology to forecast to 2045. Currently, the NC OSBM <br /> forecasts only to 2035. In comparison with other forecasting methods, such as using a <br /> linear growth rate, exponential growth rate, or logarithmic forecasting method, the OSBM <br /> method forecasts the lowest population figure for 2045. The estimated population for <br /> Orange County in 2045 is 194,867. Please see Attachment 1 for more information. Orange <br /> County Transportation Planning staff evaluated each of these methods and is in agreement <br /> with the decision to use the NC OSBM methodology to forecast 2045 population in the <br /> County. <br /> Employment Forecasts <br /> With regard to employment forecasts, however, Orange County Transportation Planning <br /> staff as well as planners from each Orange County community expressed concern that the <br /> guide total for Orange County employment in the Imagine 2045 process is too high. The <br /> current guide totals for employment are based on Woods & Poole employment growth rates <br /> and are higher than expected for the county. It is, however, important to note that TJCOG <br /> has undertaken discussions with major anchor institutions, such as UNC-Chapel Hill, with <br /> regard to their projected growth in employment. UNC-Chapel Hill has indicated that <br /> employment at the university is forecast to grow by 18,130 jobs in 2045. Even with this <br /> amount of employment growth accommodated at the university, the Woods & Poole <br /> forecasts for employment may still be too high. <br /> Orange County Transportation Planning staff is hopeful that the work to update the land <br /> use types and development status will ameliorate any concerns about the forecasts from <br /> the Imagine 2040 model run. However, if issues do arise, staff will work in coordination with <br /> Orange County municipalities, the University, and TJCOG to address any issues in the best <br /> possible manner. <br /> Key Points <br /> • It is important to note that while the goal of this model is to accurately reflect the <br /> realities of land development in Orange County, this is nonetheless a modeling effort <br /> and is inherently flawed. <br /> 2 <br />