Agenda - 11-01-2016-13-5 - Information Item - Employment and Population Guide Totals for Transportation Modeling

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INFORMATION ITEM 1 PLANNING & INSPECTIONS DEPARTMENT Craig N. Benedict, AICP, Director Administration 131 W. Margaret Lane (919) 245-2575 Suite 201 (919) 644-3002 (FAX) w„ VU a P. O. Box 8181 www.orangecountync.gov R)ift :ARO1 I N M Hillsborough, NC 27278 gypD aA�� .�*I�'�umiom�[smuir"u��omi uu u � �I IV uuN�r a i l Av '� 1 km, 100 11 0" rr MEMORANDUM TO: Board of County Commissioners FROM: Max Bushell, Orange County Transportation Planner DATE: November 1, 2016 SUBJECT: INFORMATION ITEM — Employment and Population Guide Totals for Transportation Modeling ATTACHMENT 1: Population and Employment Guide Totals ATTACHMENT 2: Modeling Process Graphic As part of the Durham Chapel Hill Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (DCHC MPO) and Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) planning process to create a joint Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP), local transportation and land use planners provided detailed spatial information about current and future land use types and the development status of parcels county-wide to populate a land use model. Local transportation and land use planners also reviewed guide totals indicating future population and employment projections (Attachment 1). These are fundamental components in a process entitled Imagine 2045. Overall Process Imagine 2045 uses the CommunityViz modeling tool to create a scenario-based approach for evaluating land use and transportation decisions. Using agreed-upon guide totals for future population and employment, the model creates scenarios (i.e. maps) that take different geographic representations of transportation networks and land use assumptions into account. Transportation networks vary by scenario and include a no improvements network (current status quo), an existing and committed transportation improvements network, and a future desired transportation improvements network. In a similar vein, land use assumptions for the type of use on a parcel and the development status of that parcel include a current zoning assumption, a future land use plan assumption (from the Orange County Comprehensive Plan Future Land Use Map), and an aspirational land use planning assumption. The aspirational land use planning assumption includes additional growth around key anchor institutions, such as universities, hospitals, and downtowns. Each scenario is evaluated using a set of performance measures, which relate to the goals and objectives of the respective MPOs. The current process is managed by the Triangle "J" Council of Governments (TJCOG) with participation from local governments and both the DCHC MPO and CAMPO. The ultimate intent of the modeling process is to calibrate the travel demand model, known locally as the Triangle Regional Model (TRM), with accurate and up-to-date socioeconomic data. The TRM is used in the MTP process to help evaluate how the difference in land use patterns