Agenda - 04-10-2007-4e - Laserfiche WebLink

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6. Student Projection Analysis Student membership projections are shown to increase at all levels in both schools as shown on page 51 of the report. 7. Orange County Schools CIP Needs Analysis CHCCS Projected need for: New Elementary #10 in 2008-2009 New Elementary #11 in 2010-2011 New Middle School #5 in 2013-2014 Expanded High School 2016-2017 OCS Projected needs: None for Elementary, Middle or High School in the next 10 years However, the SAPFOTAC report notes that development approval activity within the portion of the City of Mebane that lies within Orange County has been significant in recent years. Because the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO, CAPS are not required to be issued by the local government prior to development approvals. At this time, there are approximately 1,450 approved but undeveloped residential subdivision lots within the portion of Mebane that lies within Orange County. Development of these lots is projected to generate approximately 365 additional students (over the three school levels) at current student generation rates. Once students actually enter the school system, faster enrollment increases will change projections and probably identify CIP needs within 10 years. 8. Student Generation Rates The report also notes that Orange County anticipates contracting with Tischler & Associates in mid-2007 to study and, if necessary, update student generation rates. 9. Access to Full Report The draft SAPFOTAC report has been posted on the Orange County Planning Department's web site. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report will be sent to all SAPFO partners after this BOCC meeting advising them of the availability of the draft report and inviting comment. It is anticipated that the draft SAPFOTAC report will be brought back to the BOCC for certification at the June 12, 2007 regular meeting. FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show future needs for additional schools in the CHCCS District. Funding for CHCCS Elementary Schaol #10 has been identified in the CIP for an opening date of 2008-09. Partially because of the reduction in capacity in 2008-09 related to State reduced class size legislation, CHCCS Elementary School #11 is projected to be needed in 2010-11. CHCCS Middle School #5 is projected to be needed in 2012-13 and expansion of Carrboro High School is expected to be necessary in 2016-17. RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board a. Review the 2007 SAPFOTAC Annual Report; and b. Forward to the SAPFO partners for review and comment before June certification.