Agenda - 05-19-1987 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Future Housing and Population Growth Projections of population for the Durham County portion of the study area indicate an annual average growth rate of about 3.5 percent over the next 25 years. Over the next 15 years. the rate of growth will average about 4.3 percent per year, then slow to about 2.4 percent for the next ten years. The population is anticipated to grow about 286,000 by the year 2000 and to 363,000 by the year 2010. The number of housing units is expected to increase to 125,000 by the year 2000 and to 158,000 by the year 2010. The rate of housing growth is slightly larger than for population reflecting a gradual decrease in the number of persons occupying each housing unit. The largest increase in the number of housing units constructed in the next 15 years is expected to be in two general areas: between the Eno River and I-85 on the north, and between Cornwallis Road and I-40 on the south. These future high growth areas reflect the availability of large tracts of undeveloped land and present or anticipated sewer treatment capacity. Housing demand in these areas is expected to be stimulated by the development of new jobs in the Treyburn area and the continued expansion of businesses in and around the Research Triangle Park. Future Employment Growth Employment is expected to grow faster than housing in the next 25 years as Durham County continues to be a regional importer of labor. Durham County employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.0 percent per year, increasing to 190,000 by the year 2000 and to 254,000 by the year 2010. Employment growth is antici- pated to be higher in the first 15 years, at nearly 4.7 percent annual average, and lower in the following 10 years, at 30 percent annual average. The growth in employment in Durham County will not be uniformly distributed around the County, but rather will be concentrated in several existing and planned activity centers. The Research Triangle Park and the area between the Park and the RDU airport will continue to dominate the region's employment geography. The southeast corner of Durham County is expected to almost triple its employment in 25 years. Treyburn in the northeastern area of Durham County is anticipated to become a new significant employment center with as many as 39,000 jobs by the year 2010. Other growing employment activity centers will include downtown Durham with significant new office developments north and south of the Loop, the Chapel Hill Boulevard corridor, and Duke University and Medical Center. A major new employment center is expected to develop generally along I-85 in the vicinity of Glenn School road to accommodate heavier industrial activity. 4.3