Orange County NC Website
Browse       Search
TO: Greg Szymik, Gene Bell , Marvin Collins <br /> FROM: Brad Torgan, Planner II <br /> RE: Effect of minimum allowable lot sizes of unimproved <br /> land prices in the Rural Buffer ( revision of 4 <br /> March memo) <br /> DATE: 6 March 87 <br /> INTRODUCTION <br /> At various times during the Rural Buffer debate concerns <br /> have been raised regarding the effect of a two acre minimum <br /> lot size on the affordability and availability of unimproved <br /> land . In particular, it has been claimed that average parcel <br /> costs would increase dramatically and make the provision of <br /> affordable housing impossible. This memo provides some of the <br /> initial statistical analysis necessary to either confirm or <br /> deny the assertions . <br /> The purpose of the analysis was twofold . First, it <br /> sought to determine the effect of raising the minimum lot <br /> size on sales price of an unimproved lot in the Rural Buffer. <br /> The second purpose was to determine the extent to which <br /> "affordable" site built housing is and has been available in <br /> the buffer . <br /> The data concerning raw land prices confirms what one <br /> might intuitively expect. A positive correlation exists <br /> between size and cost and the effect of increasing the <br /> minimum lot size will be to increase average parcel price <br /> while decreasing price per acre. The affordability question <br /> is less clear . While affordable housing in the buffer is <br /> severely lacking, a change in the zoning designation from R1 <br /> to RB had little to do with it. <br /> DATA AND MODELS <br /> The model used for unimproved land prices is a simple <br /> linear regression equation, the results of which are listed <br /> in an attachment to this memo. It uses one dependent <br /> variable, parcel sales price, and one independent variable, <br /> parcel size, to which the dependent variable is tied. The <br /> observations for the model consisted of all unimproved lots <br /> sold in the Rural Buffer during the past two years and listed <br /> in the Sales Inquiry files of the Tax Supervisor ' s Office. <br /> Time of sale in relation to establishment of the Rural <br /> Buffer zoning district was not used as a variable. The <br /> classification is too recent and uncertainty still exists as <br /> to its continuation . Additionally, Sales Inquiry files only <br /> list mont-h of sale, not when the land was first offered . <br /> Instead, areas within the Rural Buffer were compared to <br /> the University Lake Water Quality Critical Area (WQCA) . Prior <br /> to the creation of the RB zoning district the WQCA had <br />