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6. Student Projection Analysis <br />Student membership projections are shown to increase at all levels in both schools as shown <br />on page 51 of the report. <br />7. Orange County School: <br />CHCCS <br />Projected need for: <br />New Elementary #10 in <br />New Elementary #11 in <br />New Middle School #5 in <br />Expanded High School <br />CIP Needs Analysis <br />2008-2009 <br />2010-2011 <br />2013-2014 <br />2016-2017 <br />OCS <br />Projected needs: <br />None for Elementary, Middle or High School in the next 10 years <br />However, the SAPFOTAC report notes that development approval.activity within the portion <br />of the City of Mebane that lies within Orange County has been significant in recent years. <br />Because the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO, CAPS are not required to be <br />issued by the local government prior to development approvals. At this time, there are <br />approximately 1,450 approved but undeveloped residential subdivision lots within the portion <br />of Mebane that lies within Orange County. Development of these lots is projected to <br />generate approximately 365 additional students (over the three school levels) at current <br />student generation rates. Once students actually enter the school system, faster enrollment <br />increases will change projections and probably identify CIP needs within 10 years. <br />8. Student Generation Rates <br />The report also notes that Orange County anticipates contracting with Tischler & Associates <br />in mid-2007 to study and, if necessary, update student generation rates. <br />9. Access to Full Report <br />The draft SAPFOTAC report has been posted on the Orange County Planning Department's <br />web site along with larger-sized student projection spreadsheets that are easier to read than <br />the size contained within the report. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report will be <br />sent to all SAPFO partners after this BOCC meeting advising them of the availability of the <br />draft report and inviting comment. <br />It is anticipated that the draft SAPFOTAC report will be brought back to the BOCC for <br />certification at the May 15, 2007 regular meeting. <br />FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show future needs for <br />additional schools in the CHCCS District. Funding for CHCCS Elementary School #10 has been <br />identified in the CIP for an opening date of 2008-09. Partially because of the reduction in <br />capacity in 2008-09 related to State reduced class size legislation, CHCCS Elementary School <br />#11 is projected to be needed in 2010-11. CHCCS Middle School #5 is projected to be needed <br />in 2012-13 and expansion of Carrboro High School is expected to be necessary.in 2016-17. <br />RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board: <br />a. Review the 2007 SAPFOTAC Annual Report; and <br />b. Forward to the SAPFO partners for review and comment before May certification. <br />