Agenda - 12-02-1985 - Laserfiche WebLink

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- -- •• 06(= • Task 4: Analyze Unmet Need Among the Transportation Disadvantaged and Assess Potential for General Public Transportation • (TDP Steps 9 through 13) This task will Assess unmet needs through four methods: 1). Open-ended questions concerning unmet needs from CGA's inventory of human service agencies will be analyzed to gain insight into subjective assessments con- cerning the nerd for new or additional services; 2) data will be collected on major origins, destinations, and predominant traffic flows to assess the extent to which existing transportation routes serve these key areas; 3) socioeconomic and demographic data will be collected for use in CGA's own demand estimation model to forecast the transit needs of the "transpor- tation disadvhntaged" population; and 4) the CGA model will also be'used to • predict a separ'ate assessment on the demand for rural public transportation • from the gener0 public. The first two n!ethods will be accomplished through the analysis of existing data or data c.oilected as part of this study process. The last two methods are accomplished through the use of our own in-house demand model. . i . This model, which is based upon a trip generation rate approach applied to selected census! demographic data for the study area, was originally devel- oped by CGA iri 1977. It has been refined over the years and computerized, and has proven to be a very reliable estimator of the need for public transit and paratransit potential in both rural and small urban areas. CGA • has used this triodet on all its planning and developmental efforts. The trip gener tion rates used in the model are factors that have been developed from the firm's own data collection base, which is periodically F expanded and now includes data on 109 rural and small urban transit and paratransit systems throughout the United States. The trip generation rates, in terms of trips or passengers per day are provided for both rural and small urban areas; are disaggregated for the transportation dependent (elderly, transportation handicapped, and low income persons); and, more- over, generate ow, moderate, and high demand potential estimates based on rates representative of systems that operate at either a relatively low, moderate, or high level of productivity. Consequently, the trip generation rates available within the model can be varied to be sensitive to different local conditions!, accounting for not only the size of the area, but also the level of sySitem productivity and demand usage likely to be achievable in a given environment. The data base needed from the 1980 Census to apply this model is total population, population 60 and above, households without automobiles, house- holds below poverty level income, and age group breakdowns of the total population, all by census tracts or county enumeration districts, whichever is available and I most appropriate for the given study area. Ratios expres- sing the prevalency of ten different types of transportation handicapped _ conditions that affect people's ability to use either transit or paratrans- it have also been extracted by CGA from the National Health Survey and are • 2-6 !