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Source: Chapel Hill Planning Department <br /> METHODOLOGY FOR PREPARATION OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS <br /> LAND USE PLAN REVISION <br /> Population Projections <br /> Work Plan for Po <br /> Sketch o P <br /> I. Estimate current population of Chapel Hill Township and all key <br /> sub-areas: Chapel Hill, Carrboro, try to estimate population of S.E. <br /> Orange Urban Area (CHC Urban Area defined as the Joint Planning Area <br /> and all areas within its outer boundary). <br /> II. Generate maps of existing land use and zoning for CHC Urban Area <br /> 1. Chapel Hill to do for Chapel Hill and its Planning Area <br /> 2. Get information for Carrboro and its Planning Area <br /> 3. Suggest that Orange Co. map for Joint Planning Area <br /> III. Generate Projections for Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area <br /> A. Compare CHC Urban Area to CH Township <br /> 1. Acreage <br /> 2. Demographics <br /> 3. Boundaries <br /> B. Generate Birth/Death rates for C. H. Township ' , <br /> C. Estimate 1970-1980 migration rate for C. H. Township <br /> D. Adjust migration rates to build in assumptions about economic <br /> growth of the Triangle Area 1980-2000. . : <br /> E. Project population of C. H. Township using cohort survival <br /> methodology. Generate projections for 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020. <br /> IV. Estimate "carrying capacity" of CHC Urban Area <br /> A. Make estimate of current population densities in different parts <br /> of area. , <br /> B. Generate conceptual development plan for entire area <br /> C. Estimate maximum population for entire CHC Urban Area, building in <br /> ' assumptions about density, watershed areas, sewered areas, open <br /> space, etc. <br /> D. Compare carrying capacity to 1) population projections, <br /> 2) water and sewer capacities <br /> V. Break out projections by Traffic Zones <br /> A. Allocate projections <br /> 1. Considering existing population distribution <br /> 2. Considering conceptual Development Plan <br /> 3. Break into 3 components: Chapel Hill <br /> Carrboro <br /> Joint Planning Area <br />