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<br /> CHCCS School Impact Fee Report(DRAFT)
<br /> Figure A15. Historical Public School Enrollments: CHCCS
<br /> t t t
<br /> Enrollment/Membership 4,879 4,980 5,173 5,302 5,219 5,296 5,464 5,543 5,554 5,541 t 5,501
<br /> Increase/(Decrease) 101 193 129 (83) 77 168 79 11 (13) (40) 1.2%
<br /> Enrollment/Membership 2,572 2,592 2,622 2,697 2,708 2,722 2,753 2,785 F'8S 2,861 2,884
<br /> Increase/(fDecrease) 20 30 75 11 14 31 32 3 23 1.2%
<br /> Enrollment/Membership 3,514 3,520 3,635 3,630 3,606 3,640 3,714 3,796 3,730 Increase/(Decrease) 6 115 (5) (24) 34 74 82 (34) (29) 0.5%
<br /> Totallncrease/(fJecrease) 127 338 199 (96) 125 273 193 (44) (46)
<br /> Total Enroll/Membership 10,965 11,092 11,430 11,629 11,533 11,658 11,931 12,124 12,132 12,086 1.0%
<br /> Source:Orange County,NCSchools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance,Annual Report,2015
<br /> (11 Official SY15-16 Enrollment
<br /> Student Enrollment Projections
<br /> Projections are from the SAPFO 2015 Annual Report. The projections are based on historic growth. As
<br /> shown, current enrollment in CHCCS is 12,086. By the school year 2025-26, CHCCS is projected to have a
<br /> total enrollment of 13,172. This represents an average annual growth rate of approximately 0.9 percent
<br /> and a growth of 1,086 students over the ten-year period.Yearly detail by school level is provided in Figure
<br /> A16 below.
<br /> Figure A16. Projected Public School Enrollments: CHCCS
<br /> Enrollment/Membership t 5,501 12016-2017
<br /> 5,552 12017-2018
<br /> 5,584 12018-201.9
<br /> 5,622 15,634 t 12020-2021
<br /> 5,699 12021-2022
<br /> 5,768 12022-2023
<br /> 5,835 2023-2024
<br /> 5,902 2024-202.5
<br /> 5,966 16,Mu
<br /> Increase/(7ecrense/ 51 32 38 12 65 69 67 67 64 64 0.9%
<br /> Enrollment/Membership 2,884 2,830 2,854 2,915 2,995 2,996 2,997 2,974 3,006 3,045 3,084
<br /> Increase/(Decrease) (54) 24 61 80 1 1 (23) 32 39 39 0.7%
<br /> Enrollment/Membership 3,701 3,757 3,820 3,842 3,857 3,883 3,917 4,013 4,041 4,045 4,058
<br /> Increase/(Decrease) 56 63 22 15 26 34 96 28 4
<br /> Netlncrease 53 119 121 107 92 104 140 127 107 116
<br /> Total 12,086 12,139 12,258 12,379 12,486 12,578 12,682 12,822 12,949 13,056 13,172 0.9%
<br /> [31 Official SY15-16 Enrollment
<br /> Source:Orange County,NCSchools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance,Annual Report,2016(March Draft)
<br /> HOUSING I T PROJECTIO
<br /> Because SAPFO does not account for the portion of enrollment growth driven by new development,
<br /> TischlerBise undertook its own analysis of potential housing unit growth and resulting student generation
<br /> from new housing. These projections reflect anticipated growth throughout the county including the
<br /> Orange County side of the City of Mebane (within the OCS system) and Chapel Hill and Carrboro.
<br /> Future housing unit projections were derived for each school system using average annual permitting data
<br /> from 2004-2013 (detailed in Figures A3 and A4).This recent trend data includes periods before and after
<br /> the "Great Recession;" therefore, it is deemed a reliable predictor of average annual growth and future
<br /> housing mix. During this time, the OCS District grew by 332 units per year and the CHCCS District grew by
<br /> an average of 273 units annually.These figures were adjusted to increase by 20%in OCS and 25%in CHCCS
<br /> based on the large number of approved but unbuilt units in both districts. Therefore, OCS is projected
<br /> forward at 398 units per year and CHCCS at 341 units per year.
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