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40 <br /> CHCCS School Impact Fee Report(DRAFT) <br /> Student Enrollment Projections <br /> Enrollment projections for OCS are based on historical actual student growth as part of the County's <br /> current Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) and detailed in the 2015 SAPFO Annual <br /> Report. The SAPFO system projects enrollment for two separate functions or activities; capital <br /> improvement planning (CIP) and growth management. One projection methodology is used in capital <br /> planning and a separate projection system is used to manage the impacts of new unbuilt development. <br /> The SAPFO Certificate of Adequate Public Schools(CAPS)system records new development approvals and <br /> determines whether capacity will be available in the prescribed year. If capacity is projected to be <br /> available then the development is allowed to proceed; if capacity is not projected to be available, the <br /> certificate is not issued until capacity is made available either by changes in enrollment or new capital <br /> improvements. This system helps synchronize capital needs and future growth by monitoring historic <br /> trends and new growth patterns that may match or exceed past growth. In established, constant growth <br /> school districts, the SAPFO CIP system usually adequately reflects future growth. <br /> As shown in Figure A14, current enrollment in OCS is 7,526. By the school year 2025-26, OCS is projected <br /> to have a total enrollment of 8,060, a total increase of 10-year increase of 534 students. This represents <br /> an average annual growth rate of approximately 0.7% percent. Yearly detail by school level is provided <br /> below. <br /> Figure A14. Projected Public School Enrollments: OCS <br /> 120154016]I]1 2016-2017 1 2017-2018 1 2018-2019 1 2019-2020 1 2020-2021 2021-2022 1 2022-2023 I 2023-2024 I 2024 4025 I 20254026 I Annual Growth Rate <br /> Elementary '®" ' ®ENIMMIEM®MIEEMMIEMMIZE®®� <br /> -0®®®EMMEMMEM=EMME■■:1E■ 0.8% <br /> NBt14474474 !276 <br /> Middle MNIMMEIMENIIMMEIM 1,846 ENCIMMIEMENEMME=M:E=■31ME■ <br /> -0®EEMMM®®®MEMMil:■■31:■ 0.7% <br /> Net14474474 !118 <br /> High '®" ' 2,469 MIEMMEEEM®EMIBM 2,604 ! 2,669 =ME= 2,608 2,609 <br /> ®®®ME=MM®®®®0 0.6% <br /> Netlncrase 1140 !� <br /> Net Increase 46 51 43 71 47 46 87 46 33 64 <br /> Total 7,526 7,572 7,623 7,666 7,737 7,784 7,830 7,917 7,963 7,996 8,060 <br /> Total Increase !.534 >.- <br /> (1]SAPFO Capture Date Membership,Nov.13,2015 <br /> Source:Orange County,NCSchools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance,Annual Report,2016(March Draft) <br /> Ch bpi UPC rr m r. Cif gyp kb Is <br /> Historical Enrollment <br /> Since the 2005-2006 school year, enrollment has increased by a total of 1,121 students with some <br /> fluctuation from year to year. Current total enrollment for the 2015-2016 school year is 12,086. Yearly <br /> data for the past 10 years as well as the current actual enrollment are shown below in Figure A15 for <br /> CHCCS. <br /> 33 <br />