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<br /> Orange County's Future on current development Page 4
<br /> patterns show that two- Orange County Projected Vehicle
<br /> Population* thirds as much land will Miles Traveled(VMT)
<br /> An estimated 65,850 people are projected be developed than has 3000
<br /> to be added to the current population by been developed from Total
<br /> 2030,increasing the County's population Rural Roads
<br /> the time of European 7000
<br /> Urban Roads
<br /> to nearly 180,000 people. Between 1998 settlement to the present v
<br /> and 2030,the projected annual population day. If current trends 3000
<br /> growth rate is 1.45%. Although this rate continue,an estimated -a
<br /> is considerably slower than the 1960-1998 46%of the County's land >000
<br /> growth rate of 2.57%,the actual number of will be developed in 2030, n woo
<br /> people added over the next thirty years will compared to only 28%
<br /> be almost as many. The steepest increase in 1998. Chapel Hill > 3000
<br /> will be in the Latino population,which will Township will be largely 2000
<br /> comprise an estimated 8%of the population built out,with remain-
<br /> by 2030. Additionally,children and seniors ing undeveloped acreage 000 N 0 CO T O O O O O O N N N N N O
<br /> are projected to increase disproportionately mainly in the Rural Buffer °' N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
<br /> in relation to total population increase. that surrounds Chapel
<br /> Development Hill and Carrboro. Traffic
<br /> Over the next thirty years,projections based
<br /> Services Trends also suggest an annual increase in
<br /> The projected growth daily vehicle miles traveled(VMT)of 2.34%,
<br /> Orange County Projected Population will put pressure on the increasing from 35 VMT to 45 VMT by
<br /> 200,000— County's education and 2030. This increase would be attributable
<br /> 178,740 transportation systems, as to the continuation of current land use pat
<br /> 157,820 well as the water and air terns,commuting patterns, and transporta-
<br /> 1 50,000 136,950 quality and the integrity tion infrastructure provisions.
<br /> ,950 of natural areas. By the
<br /> 116,890 year 2030,school enroll- Forests
<br /> ment will increase by 6,520 Also,if the trend in prime forest loss from
<br /> 100,000 — elementary students, 2,740 1988 to 1996 continues(a reduction of
<br /> middle school students,and 1,000 acres per year),by 2030 there would bet
<br /> 2,800 high school students. less than 47,000 acres of prime forests left,
<br /> 50,000 — Under these projections or about 52%of the 90,000 acres existing in
<br /> 1988.
<br /> another 10 elementary
<br /> schools,4 middle schools, "Editor's Note:SOCF determined Orange County population
<br /> projections from Census 1990 data. Census 2000 data
<br /> 0 2000 I 2010 I 2020 I 2030 and 2-3 high schools will be indicates higher growth rates.
<br /> needed.
<br /> - u e.
<br /> MP
<br /> .
<br /> SOCF's vision for the year 2030,as well as the integrity of forests,streams,and open space dignity,justice,and economic opportunity.
<br /> goals and recommendations,reflect at their core through voluntary incentives,thus preserv- • Governance that provides necessary pub
<br /> the following set of shared values. These values ing the land's continuing potential for lic services efficiently,proactively establishes
<br /> act as a compass,guiding our direction and agriculture and other appropriate uses. collaborative ties within the region and state,
<br /> serving as a warning if we should begin to run • The development of children and youth, encourages civic participation, and is fully
<br /> off course. They represent what we hold in high as well as adult citizens in various phases of representative of all the County's citizens,
<br /> esteem,and help us to define a desirable future for their lives,by providing excellent elementary responsive to their needs,consistent and
<br /> Orange County. and secondary education, cultural experi- fair,socially just in decision-making,and
<br /> • Sustainable,renewable use of resources ences,and lifelong learning opportunities, accountable for the promises and obligation-
<br /> and environmental stewardship through all of which foster intellectual,social,and incurred on citizens'behalf.
<br /> joint planning,cooperation,and action. spiritual growth,develop marketable skills, • A shared sense of community,civil,
<br /> • Towns which are friendly and accessible, and contribute to the fulfillment of individu- collaborative,vibrant,friendly, caring, and
<br /> centers of education,culture, and civic life; al potential. both diverse and inclusive;where citizens
<br /> places where individuals and neighborhoods • A strong commitment to the well-be- feel responsible to and for one another;
<br /> thrive along with the institutions,organi- ing of all individuals,young and old,of any where involvement in community life is
<br /> zations, and businesses which serve their race or ethnicity,and with any disability,by both encouraged and anticipated;and whey:
<br /> needs. providing for basic physical and social needs, the contributions of all are welcomed and
<br /> • Rural areas which retain natural,visual, including those which support children and respected.
<br /> and economic resources by maintaining the families,in an atmosphere of safety,equity,
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