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49 <br /> Section II <br /> C. Student Membership Projections <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br /> Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report <br /> certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br /> comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models <br /> represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level <br /> (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill/Carrboro School <br /> District and Orange County School District). <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> The 5 model average discussed in Section The 5 model average discussed in Section <br /> II.B (Student Projection Methodology) II.B (Student Projection Methodology) <br /> See Attachment II.C.4 See Attachment II.C.3 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease <br /> at the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools' elementary, middle, and high school levels <br /> and at the Orange County Schools' middle and high school levels. The only increase <br /> in student membership was at the Orange County Schools' elementary school level. <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools projected average annual growth rates have decreased <br /> slightly, but remain positive. Future growth rates show positive growth at the <br /> elementary and high school levels, but varying positive and negative growth at the <br /> middle school level in the 10 year projection period. Projected average annual growth <br /> rates for Orange County Schools have increased slightly since the previous year. <br /> Orange County Schools' future growth rates show varying positive and negative <br /> growth in the 10 year projection period for the elementary, middle, and high school <br /> levels. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year by year percent growth <br /> and projected level of service(LOS). The projection models were updated using <br /> current(November 13, 2015)memberships. Membership numbers were collected on <br /> 30 <br />