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Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analjis (2015-16) <br /> Section II (page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2015-2016 School Year (November 13, 2015) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • The majority of projections were all low ranging from 9 students to 67 students below <br /> actual membership. One projection equaled actual membership. On average, the <br /> projections were 33 students lower than actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 59 students between November 14, 2014 and <br /> November 13, 2015. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 18 students below to 52 students <br /> above actual membership. On average, the projections were 12 students higher than <br /> the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 23 students between November 14, 2014 and <br /> November 13, 2015. <br /> High School Level <br /> • The majority of projections were high, ranging from 19 to 76 students above actual <br /> membership. One projection was low with 13 students below actual membership. On <br /> average, the projections were 41 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 33 students between November 14, 2014 and <br /> November 13, 2015. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were mixed low to high, ranging from 61 <br /> students below to 128 students above actual membership. On average, the projections <br /> were 20 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership increased in total by 3 students, which is the sum of +59 at <br /> Elementary, -23 at Middle, and -33 at High. <br /> 27 <br />