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Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance AnaljT4is (2014-15) <br /> Section II (page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br /> School Membership 2014-2015 School Year (November 14, 2014) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 69 students to 114 students high. On average, <br /> the projections were 94 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 13 students between November 15, 2013 and <br /> November 14, 2014. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 28 students to 96 students high. On average, the <br /> projections were 64 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 3 students between November 15, 2013 and <br /> November 14, 2014. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 31 students to 145 students high. On average, <br /> the projections were 75 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 34 students between November 15, 2013 and <br /> November 14, 2014. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The total of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 180 students to 287 <br /> students above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 233 <br /> students. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 44 students, which is the sum of-13 at <br /> Elementary, +3 at Middle, and -34 at High. <br /> 25 <br />