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Attachment II.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analys4s2(2014-15) <br /> Section II (page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2014-2015 School Year (November 14, 2014) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all high ranging from 198 students to 234 students high. On average, <br /> the projections were 213 students higher than actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 174 students between November 15, 2013 and <br /> November 14, 2014. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 15 students to 37 students high. On average, the <br /> projections were 27 students higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 15 students between November 15, 2013 and <br /> November 14, 2014. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all low ranging from 39 students to 208 students low. On average, the <br /> projections were 96 students lower than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 81 students between November 15, 2013 and <br /> November 14, 2014. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were high, ranging from 52 to 211 above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were high by 144 students. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 78 students, which is the sum of-174 at <br /> Elementary, +15 at Middle, and +81 at High. <br /> 23 <br />