Agenda - 05-17-2016 - 5-f - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance – Approval and Certification of 2016 Report

Browse Search

40 STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION/CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS Tischier Linear(OCS& y=((c*b)*x)+b CHCCS) Mathematical formula;straight line projection ro ected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years Historical growth is reflected in projected growth y=P j P P g Y p 3 Y BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM`%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; BYM=base year 2nd month %SL=%membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o , increase in BYI of S every other year reflects (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM ensuing year membership;n=projection year; = of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYM/SL=ensuing year constraints member by school level BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM"0/oSL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10•year average; BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o o decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /oSL=/o of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYM/SL=ensuing year buildout constraints member by school level Kn=kn.1+(kn.1"0.01) .�'T' Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 E advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(E Gn I gn.1}13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the = 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same 1 CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n•1(a) percentage of students in each grade level -"- kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grades graduate to the next level each year bo and/or historical growth rates CA g membership(other kindergarten);g= grade's membership;a=average �j advancement rate;b=projected membership "r C Oe ee Kn=kn.1+(kn.1"0.01) '+ Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 4 advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E Gn I gn.1)/5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the E 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same V CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n,1(a) percentage of students in each grade level col kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year ? and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average "CI advancement rate;b=projected membership b ►5 O. cr. et Kn=k .1+(kn.1*0.01) Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 O advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(£ Gn I gn.1)110 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same eti C col HCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level K kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year "CI and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average 7 advancement rate;bprojected membership = = col