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15 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2015-16 School Year- Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2015-2016 in that given year.The second column <br /> for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection <br /> was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2015-16 Membership <br /> Actual 2015 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 3318 3617 H299 3649 H331 3574 H256 3555 H237 3285 L33 <br /> Middle 1739 1846 H107 1829 H90 1777 H38 1805 H66 1751 H12 <br /> High 2469 2375 L94 2379 L90 2359 L110 2411 L58 2510 H41 <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate (Change) Pg. 39 <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year <br /> Projection 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 <br /> Made: <br /> Elementary 1.59% 1.18% 1.44% 1.11% 0.92% 1.6% 1.31% 1.30% 0.55% 0.80% <br /> Middle 1.94% 1.59% 1.58% 1.15% 0.82% 2.01% 1.64% 1.42% 0.09% 0.67% <br /> High 1.73% 1.60% 1.27% 1.22% 0.93% 1.61% 1.43% 1.35% 0.39% 0.56% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate (No Change) Pg. 42 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 94.4%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br /> but remain positive(average-0.92%per year compared to 1.7% over the past 10 <br /> years). <br /> C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional elementary school in the 10 year <br /> projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2023-24. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 96.6%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br /> but remain positive (average-0.82% compared to an average of 1.4% over the past <br /> 10 years). <br /> C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional middle school in the 10 year <br /> projection period. Last year's projections showed a need in 2023-24. <br /> ii <br />