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14 <br /> 2016 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary <br /> I. Base Memorandum of Understanding <br /> A. Level of Service (No Change) Pg. 1 <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Elementary 105% 105% <br /> Middle 107% 107% <br /> High 110% 110% <br /> B. Building Capacity and Membership (Change) Pg. 2 <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Capacity Membership Increase from Capacity Membership Increase from <br /> Prior Year Prior Year <br /> Elementary 5829 5501 (40) 3694 3318 59 <br /> Middle 2944 2844 (17) 2166 1739 (23) <br /> High 3875 3701 (29) 2439 2469 (33) <br /> C. Membership Date—November 15 (No Change) Pg.1 7 <br /> II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br /> A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (No Change) Pg. 18 <br /> B. Student Membership Projection Methodology (No Change) Pg. 19 <br /> The average of 3, 5, and 10 year history/cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. <br /> C. Student Membership Projections (Change) Pg. 30 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2015-16 School Year— Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2015-2016 in that given year.The second column <br /> for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection <br /> was low compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2015-16 Membership <br /> Actual 2015 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 5501 5752 H251 5921 H420 5764 H263 5748 H247 5606 H105 <br /> Middle 2844 2951 H107 2949 H105 2972 H128 2947 H103 2895 H51 <br /> High 3701 3911 H210 3937 H236 3910 H209 3825 H124 3742 H41 <br /> 1 <br />