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28 <br /> year-end 2016 jobless rates under 5%. This rate has traditionally been considered "full- <br /> employment". Due to military downsizing, Fayetteville will end 2016 with an unemployment <br /> rate near 7%. Issues related to restructuring their economies for the 21' century will keep <br /> Rocky Mount's jobless rate above 7% and rural North Carolina's rate near 6% in 2016. <br /> Watch for Unknowns <br /> A major problem with economic forecasting is the threat of the unknown—unpredictable <br /> events that can erupt and disrupt economic conditions. There are two varieties of these <br /> unknowns—those we know exist but can't predict their behavior, and those we don't even know <br /> exist! In the first category are the obvious examples of severe weather, international hotspots <br /> (North Korea, the Middle East, terrorism), and domestic disruptions like power outages or <br /> medical epidemics. In the second category are—well, that's just it, we don't know! <br /> As 2016 begins there are new concerns about the Middle East and the stability of China's <br /> economy. Of course, these will require watching and monitoring. And at the end of 2016 we <br /> will have the uncertainty, anticipation, and expectations associated with a newly elected <br /> President. It will be an interesting and memorable year. <br /> 15 <br />