Orange County NC Website
25 <br /> 2008), lower growth rates during the recession and in the immediate aftermath, but higher <br /> growth rates again as the economic recovery lengthened(2014 and 2015). This same pattern <br /> has been observed during previous business cycles. The main explanation for the state's more <br /> volatile growth pattern is its over-reliance on manufacturing. The relative importance of <br /> manufacturing to North Carolina's economy is 70%higher than for the nation. But since <br /> manufacturing follows more of a"boom and bust"pattern during the business cycle—due to <br /> purchases dropping significantly during recessions but then returning strongly due to pent-up <br /> demand in recoveries - states, like North Carolina, with larger manufacturing sectors also follow <br /> more of a"boom and bust" economic pattern. <br /> The state is expected to out-perform the nation again in 2016. The forecasted 2.1% <br /> growth in payroll jobs will boost non-farm job numbers by close to 90,000. The state's <br /> "headline"unemployment rate will drop to near 5%by year's end. Yet job growth will not be <br /> evenly spread among sectors and salaries. Figure 2 shows the annual percentage increase in <br /> employment in major economic sectors for the 2010-2014 and 2015 time periods. The <br /> economic sectors are ranked from those with the highest average salaries at the top of the graph <br /> (financial services is the top paying sector) to those with the lowest average salaries <br /> (leisure/hospitality has the lowest average salaries). In general, during both periods the fastest <br /> growth has been in the top and lowest paying sectors, and the slowest growth has been in the <br /> middle paying sectors. This is a pattern that has been observed at the national level and is one <br /> contributor to widening income inequality among households. The pattern will continue in 2016. <br /> For decades a geographic divide in economic performance has prevailed in North <br /> Carolina. Figure 3 shows annual average payroll job growth for the 2010-14 and 2015 periods <br /> in the state's regions. In 2010-2014 the metro areas of Asheville, Charlotte, Durham, Raleigh, <br /> 12 <br />