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22 <br /> The "R" Word <br /> The current economic expansion, which began in mid-2009, is already longer than all but <br /> three of the eleven post-World War II expansions. Hence, there is understandable concern about <br /> the imminent possibility of a new recession. <br /> Although no economic forecast is absolutely certain, all signs point to no recession in <br /> 2016. However, odds suggest a likely recession before the end of the decade. While the next <br /> recession will be not be as severe as the Great Recession of 2007-2009, it will require <br /> retrenchment by households and businesses for at least half a year. The best guarantee of a <br /> moderate recession is modest debt loads by households and businesses going into the downturn. <br /> The North Carolina Economy: Ahead of the Pack—But Not Everywhere and for Everyone <br /> Table 2 shows the recent performance of the North Carolina economy on key indicators. <br /> Compared to both the longer(1997-2010)period as well as the more recent post-recessionary <br /> period(2010-2014),North Carolina performed much better on all measures.1 In particular, both <br /> real GDP and real GDP per capita had growth rates 50%higher than the national rates. Labor <br /> force growth was an astonishing 5 times faster than the national rate, and job growth from both <br /> the household survey and the payroll survey were stronger than the comparable national growth <br /> rates. Rapid labor force growth was likely due to in-migration of new households from other <br /> states as well as a return of"discouraged workers" (unemployed individuals who had stopped <br /> looking for work and therefore are not counted as officially unemployed) to the active <br /> 1 1997 is the beginning year of the longer period due to the unavailability of state GDP data prior to that year. <br /> 9 <br />