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35 <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br /> PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS <br /> Tischer Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection y=((o'b)"x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth <br /> CHCCS) y=projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years <br /> BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM`%SL=EYM/SL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br /> (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL=%of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYM/SL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 <br /> (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL--%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYM/SL=ensuing year buildout constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> ^r <br /> ^r <br /> A7, <br /> KK =kn.,+'(kn.i'0.01) n <br /> ,, om' <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(£ Gn I gn.1)1 3 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the p <br /> 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate "'r <br /> ( 9 n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same — <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n i(a) percentage of students in each grade level "'- <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year bo <br /> and/or historical growth rates " <br /> g membership(other kindergarten);g= grade's membership;a=average CA <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership C"'r <br /> tZ <br /> et <br /> R <br /> Kn=kn•i+(kn_1"0,01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 4 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E Gn I gn.1)15 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> C <br /> et <br /> HCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n.i(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average 7 <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership b <br /> . 0. <br /> et <br /> n <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 O <br /> R <br /> advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(£ Gn I g„.1)/10 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the d <br /> 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same et <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-i(a) percentage of students in each grade level n <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year ,�' <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average =• <br /> advancement rate:b=projected membership p <br />