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16 <br /> NC STATE ECONaMIST <br /> Table 1. Performance and Forecasts of the U.S. Econom <br /> 1990-2010 2010-2014 <br /> annual annual 2016 <br /> average average 20151 (projected) <br /> GENERAL <br /> Real GDP growth rate 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% <br /> Real GDP per capita growth rate 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% <br /> Real personal income per capita growth rate 1.7% 1.0% 3.1% 1.6% <br /> Real consumption per capita growth rate 1.8% 1.3% 2.4% 2.0% <br /> Headline unemployment rate 5.8% 8.0% 5.0%2 4.7% <br /> Labor force growth rate 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% <br /> Household (HH) employment growth rate 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% <br /> Payroll jobs growth rate 0.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% <br /> All- item CPI inflation rate 2.5% 1.7% 0.5% 2.0% <br /> Core CPI inflation rate 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% <br /> 3-month Treasury-bill rate 3.5% 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% <br /> 10-year Treasury-note rate 5.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.8% <br /> BUSINESS <br /> Equipment investment, % of GDP 6.3% 5.6% 5.7% 6.0% <br /> Labor productivity growth rate 2.5% 0.3% 1.7% 1.8% <br /> Residential housing price growth rate 3.4% 1.5% 5.6% 4.0% <br /> Residential housing starts growth rate 6.3%3 -11.2%4 8.7% 11.0% <br /> Dow-Jones Industrial Avg growth rate 7.7% 10.4% 1.1% 3.0% <br /> Trade-weight dollar index 90.6 85.0 106.4 112.0 <br /> Net trade balance, % of GDP5 -2.9% -3.4% -2.9% -3.1% <br /> HOUSEHOLDS <br /> Population growth rate 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% <br /> Real median HH income growth rate 0.08% 0.07% 5.3% 1.5% <br /> Real hourly earnings growth rate n/a 0.3% 1.9% 1.5% <br /> Average weekly hours n/a 34.4 34.6 34.5 <br /> HH debt, % of GDP 75.0% 83.9% 80.0% 81.0% <br /> HH debt payment, % of disposable income 11.8% 10.6% 10.1% 10.2% <br /> Savings rate, % 5.4% 5.8% 5.2% 5.0% <br /> FISCAL POLICY <br /> Federal budget deficit, % of GDP 2.5% 6.1% 2.4% 2.3% <br /> Federal debt, % of GDP 62.8% 97.1% 100.5% 98.5% <br /> Federal interest payments, % of GDP 2.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% <br /> MONETARY POLICY <br /> Federal funds rate, % 3.82%6 0.08%7 0.15% 1.00% <br /> Money supply growth rate 3.1%6 11.2%7 7.5% 5.0% <br /> Excess reserves growth rate 0.4%6 181.8%7 -0.5% -1.0% <br /> Money velocity growth rate 0.5%6 -3.97 -2.0% 0.3% <br /> 1 year over year based on the latest data; 2 November; 31990-2006; 4 2006-2014; 5`-`indicates a trade deficit; <br /> 6 1990-2007; 7 2007-2014 <br /> Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Dept. of Commerce; author's forecasts <br /> 2 <br />