Orange County NC Website
Browse       Search
20 <br /> Fortunately, there is a logical explanation for the state's GDP trends. <br /> Manufacturing is still more dominant in North Carolina than in the nation. The <br /> share of total GDP contributed by manufacturing is 20% in North Carolina and <br /> 11% in the nation. Over half of domestic manufacturing output is exported. As <br /> the dollar's international value significantly strengthened in 2014, exports to <br /> foreign buyers stalled. As a result, North Carolina's factories showed no gain in <br /> their value of output in 2014 compared to 2013. This held down North Carolina's <br /> GDP gains in 2014, and did so to a greater extent in North Carolina than in the <br /> nation due to the state's heavier reliance on manufacturing. <br /> A more worrisome trend in North Carolina is the slow pace of wage gains. <br /> In 2013, 2014, and thus far (through May) in 2015, average nominal worker wage <br /> gains in North Carolina have underperformed those in the nation. For example, in <br /> 2013, average nominal wages increased 1.4% in the nation but fell I% in North <br /> Carolina. In 2014 U.S. average nominal wages improved 2.1%, yet in North <br /> Carolina the gain was 0.4%. From May 2014 to May 2015, national average <br /> nominal wages are up 2.3% compared to North Carolina's increase of 2.2%. So <br /> the gap has recently narrowed, but it still bears watching.' <br /> North Carolina State and Regional Forecasts <br /> The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indictors is designed <br /> to project the growth path in the state's economy. The Index (Figure 9) shows a <br /> decline (on-trend) since spring, 2014. Hence, the Index correctly forecast the <br /> recent slowing of growth in both real GDP and payroll employment compared to <br /> levels in 2013. <br /> Still, real GDP and nonfarm payrolls will increase for the remainder of 2015. <br /> Real GDP is forecasted to improve by between 2.5% and 2.75%, and nonfarm <br /> payrolls are expected to rise by 2.5% - the same rate as the nation. This will <br /> tranlate to 105,000 additional payroll jobs in the state. The headline <br /> unemployment rate —registering 5.7% in May —will fall to 5.5% by year's end. <br /> The reduction in the headline jobless rate will be cushioned by the return of <br /> "discouraged workers" as the labor market improves. <br /> 'The pattern is repeated for per capita disposable income. In 2013 per capita disposable income in the nation <br /> rose 0.3%, but in North Carolina it fell 0.5%. In 2014,the gain in per capita disposable income was 2.9%in the <br /> nation and 2.5%in North Carolina. <br /> 10 <br />