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18 <br /> Of course, there are always cautions and potential dangers for the economy. <br /> Labor productivity has flattened in recent years. This is a concern because <br /> research shows long-run gains in the economy — and specifically to workers' <br /> standard of living — only occur when labor productivity is improving. The absence <br /> of recent gains in labor productivity suggests potential problems in worker training <br /> and in the skill sets of some workers. <br /> International issues are always "wild cards" for economic forecasts, and in <br /> 2015 there is no shortage of international concerns. These include geopolitical <br /> confrontations in eastern Europe (Ukraine), the Middle East (Iraq, ISIS), southeast <br /> Asia (China's expansion in the South China Sea), and northeast Asia (North <br /> Korea). Any of the situations could reach the level of disrupting both the world <br /> and U.S. economies. <br /> There are also issues of economic growth in Europe, China, and Japan <br /> which, with the U.S., compose the bulk of economic activity in the world. Europe <br /> has issues of slow growth and of maintenance of the Euro currency. China's <br /> economic growth has significantly slowed, and some worry of a recession created <br /> by over-investment in real estate. Japan has had a decades' long problem with <br /> slow economic growth and a rapidly aging population. All could have adverse <br /> impacts on the U.S. economy. <br /> North Carolina: Is Progress Stalling? <br /> Like the nation,job growth in North Carolina improved in 2014 (Figure 7) <br /> and the alternative measures of unemployment all declined (Figure 8). But some <br /> worries have begun to emerge. <br /> First, as indicated in Figure 7, payroll job growth in the first five months of <br /> 2015 has been running at an annual rate slightly behind 2014. However, the same <br /> pattern is seen at the national level and is, again, likely due to the adverse effects of <br /> the bad winter weather. <br /> Perhaps a more important worry is the performance of real GDP. The gain <br /> in the state's real GDP in 2014 was only little more than half the gain in 2013 <br /> (1.4% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2013). Further, North Carolina's 2014 improvement <br /> (1.4%) was substantially under the national increase of 2.2%. <br /> s <br />