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17 <br /> The key elements behind this growth forecast are job growth, improved <br /> worker wages, the lessening of debt constraints, moderate inflation, and pent-up <br /> demand. <br /> Nonfarm payroll job growth has improved in each year since the job <br /> recovery began in 2010, rising from 1.6% in 2011 to 1.7% in 2012 to 1.8% in 2013 <br /> and to 2.3% in 2014. It is expected this trend will continue in 2015, with nonfarm <br /> payroll job growth improving by 2.5%. This will translate into 3.6 million <br /> additional jobs nationwide and will be a major impetus to economic growth during <br /> 2015. <br /> Worker wages (earnings per hour) have also been improving at better rates <br /> in recent years. Average nominal worker wages gained only 1.4% in 2013, but <br /> rose 2.1% in 2014 and in the first five months of 2015 are rising at an annual rate <br /> of 2.3%. As job growth accelerates and the pool of unemployed workers shrinks, <br /> wage gains should accelerate, posting an expected 2.5% improvement in 2015. <br /> Combined with the increase in jobs, this gives a powerful boost to consumer <br /> spending power and economic growth. <br /> Households have worked hard to reduce debt levels since the recession. <br /> The ratio of household debt to household disposable income has risen for five <br /> consecutive years. Households now devote only 10% of their disposable income to <br /> debt service, down from 13% prior to the Great Recession. With debt payments <br /> less of a burden, households have more resources to devote to spending. <br /> Although both inflation and long-term interest rates have trended upward, <br /> they are not at levels that will impinge the economic recovery. Also, both are well <br /> below their pre-recessionary levels. It is widely thought the Federal Reserve will <br /> increase the short-term interest rates it controls sometime in late 2015 or early <br /> 2016. However, the hike is expected to be contained (0.25 percentage points) and <br /> will signal the Fed's confidence in the economic recovery. <br /> The last generator of continued economic growth in 2015 will be pent-up <br /> demand. The Great Recession and relatively slow recovery motivated many <br /> households to postpone purchasing big-ticket, durable items. For example, <br /> purchases of vehicles and vehicle parts in the nation were up only 2.4% in 2014 <br /> from 2007, despite the fact that the number of households increased 6% during the <br /> same period. As households feel more confident about the economy, purchase of <br /> durable products will increase — thereby adding another element of growth to the <br /> economy. <br />