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12 <br /> The economy is now in the third quarter. The recovery —which is in its <br /> sixth year —will continue. Production,jobs, wages, and incomes will all <br /> improve in 2015, both in the nation and in North Carolina. Unemployment <br /> rates will trend lower, but improvements will be modest as individuals who <br /> previously stopped looking for work— and therefore were not counted as <br /> unemployed by the "headline" jobless rate —will re-enter the labor force. <br /> In the nation, nonfarm payrolls will increase 2.5%, generating 3.6 <br /> million jobs. In North Carolina, nonfarm payrolls will also improve by 2.5%, <br /> resulting in 105,000 additional payroll jobs. Wages in both the nation and the <br /> state will begin to accelerate their gains. <br /> Within North Carolina, the fastest growing regions will continue to be <br /> the larger metropolitan areas, particularly those in an arc from the Triangle <br /> west to the Triad and south to Charlotte. Several regions — mainly in the <br /> eastern section of the state - continue to struggle — having very low or negative <br /> job growth. <br /> The Nation: Another Positive Year <br /> The broadest measure of economic activity for the nation — real (inflation- <br /> adjusted) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - continued climbing in 2014 and early <br /> 2015 (Figure 1). Winter storms caused GDP to fall in the first quarter of 2015, but <br /> subsequent monthly data indicate a bounce-back. Aided by continuing modest gas <br /> prices, consumers appear to be lifting their spending. <br /> The employment market followed the pace of GDP. Payroll jobs were <br /> added at a faster pace in 2014, and by early 2015 payroll employment topped 142 <br /> million, the highest ever (Figure 2). All measures of the national unemployment <br /> rate —varying by how unemployment is defined - also dropped to post- <br /> recessionary lows (Figure 3). <br /> z <br />