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Attachment 3 11 <br /> mig <br /> !D <br /> A , M3 <br /> THE NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK <br /> THIRD QUARTER 2015 <br /> Prepared by Dr. Michael L. Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished <br /> Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina <br /> State University <br /> Contact Methods: phone: 919-515-4671; e-mail: michael Walden cr,ncsu.edu <br /> Executive Summary: Third Quarter of the Recovery <br /> To use a sports analogy, economic recoveries from recessions can be <br /> divided into four quarters. The first quarter occurs with the economy hitting <br /> bottom and finally turning around and generating growth. Negatives become <br /> positives (or, in football terms, negative yardage is turned into positive <br /> yardage). Most measures are still below their pre-recessionary peaks, but the <br /> economy is moving forward. Yet issues persist with jobless rates remaining <br /> high and wage gains non-existent. <br /> Quarter two sees economic gains accelerate to the point that many <br /> measures, most notably employment and aggregate production (GDP) regain <br /> and then exceed their pre-recessionary levels. However, wage and income <br /> growth still lag as lingering large numbers of unemployed workers curtail any <br /> gains in compensation. <br /> The economic game plan really takes shape in the third quarter. <br /> Hiring continues, the ranks of the unemployed shrink, and wage and income <br /> increases begin to occur. Both business and consumer confidence are high <br /> and prospects for the future brighten. <br /> The economic recovery comes to an end in the fourth quarter. Due to <br /> many possible reasons — tight labor markets, rapid inflation, or investment <br /> bubbles — the recovery begins to wind down. The end can come rapidly or <br /> slowly, but whichever way, the economy eventually moves into another <br /> recession. <br /> 1 <br />