Agenda - 09-19-2007-6f1 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Section V. Draft Countv Profile (Data) Element Orange Countv Comprehensive Plan 'Highlights • The range of projected population growth for Orange County through 2030 is between 161,118 and n L 215,649, a difference of 54,431 people. Of the three population projection . methods used to calculate Orange County's potential growth, the Exponential model yields the highest population estimates of 215,649 for the_.y_ear..2030. This would correspond to an increase of 100,000 people and a growth rate of 87 percent over 20 years. The Linear model yields a moderate picture of growth with the county's population increasing to 173,248 by 2030. This represents a growth rate of 50 percent over 20 years. The Adjusted Migration model prepared by the state provides the most conservative estimate for growth in Orange County, with the population increasing to 161,118 by 2030, representing an increase of 45,587 people and a growth rate of 39.5 percent over 20 years. On average, Orange County can expect to add between 127 -279 people per month over the next several decades until 2030. Orange County's growth rate is ranked in the top 25% for the state and it is the 3`a fastest growing county in the region at 2.1 %. Growth rates for neighboring counties such as Durham and Chatham are slightly lower than 9/6/2007 C2 Orange County when compared using Exponential and Linear methodologies, 150 and 87 %) for Orange, Durham {48 and 78 %} and Chatham 148 and 80 %}. • According to the Adjusted Migration Model, Orange County's growth rate of 39.5 percent is moderate compared to the projected growth in Chatham County of 74.1 percent and Durhamrn County's growth rate at 48.3 percent. • The nearby counties of Wake and Johnston are expected to experience triple digit growth over the next 20 years based on Exponential and Adjusted Migration projections. • The Town of Chapel Hill will grow by 50,000 people from 2010 -2030 and unincorporated Orange will grow by greater than 55,000. • Based on the Exponential model the population in the unincorporated portions of the county is projected to decrease from 42 percent of the population in 2000 to 36 percent in 2030. For the Linear model, this decrease is from 42 percent to 40.5 percent.