Agenda - 09-19-2007-6f1 - Laserfiche WebLink

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DRAFT COUNTY PROFILE (DATA) ELEMENT APPENDIX growth; for July 2006 -July 2007, the average annual non - institutional July 2003 -July 2005 growth; for 2007 -08 and 2008 -09, the average annual non - institutional April 2000 -July 2005 growth; for July 2009 -April 2010, 75% of the 2008 -09 growth) were averaged using equal weights (50 0/o/50 0/o). Finally, the population at each date was created by adding the growth for the period ending with that date to the population at the beginning of the period (begin by adding the 2005 -06 growth to the 2005 county estimate to produce the July 1, 2006 control, then add the 2006 -07 growth to the 2006 control to produce the 2007 control,...). The third set was a set of county population controls applied to the projection date values for the second projection decade (2010 -2020) to roughly approximate using 50% of the "trend" growth and 50% of the "estimate" growth for the entire decade. Several steps were required. First, the 2000 -05 "estimate" growth was linearly extrapolated to April 2010. Then, these values were averaged with values for April 2010 projected using no population controls. These. averages used weights of 50% for the extrapolated (or "estimate ") values and 50% for the uncontrolled (or "trend ") values. The difference between each of these "50 %150 %" averages and the corresponding county population control for April 2010 was used to adjust the projected value for that county for April 2020. The adjustment was added to the population projected from April 2010 (using the controlled value) to April 2020 without any population controls to yield a controlled value for April 2020. Since the growth for the 3rd projection decade is based on the projected 2nd decade growth, this adjustment changed the growth for that decade as well. 11 8/16/2007