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12 <br />1 Nancy Coston, Social Services Director, said this item was to be discussed in March but <br />2 was canceled due to inclement weather but she wanted to update them on some possible <br />3 scenarios. She reviewed the following background information: <br />4 <br />5 BACKGROUND: The Orange County Department of Social Services (DSS) has offered <br />6 subsidized child care to all children placed on the waitlist prior to January 1, 2015, as directed <br />7 by the Orange County Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) using funds in the Social <br />8 Services current fiscal year budget, state reallocations and funds made available by the BOCC. <br />9 A new waiting list was started on January 1, 2015. Staff was asked to come back to the BOCC <br />10 and present funding proposals for different child care subsidy scenarios for FY 2015 -16. <br />11 Although some scenarios were developed for the March 5, 2015 work session that was <br />12 canceled due to inclement weather (see attached), additional trend analysis has now been <br />13 included in the information being presented. The original cost estimate for Fiscal Year 2014- <br />14 2015 was based on an expectation of 820 children per month receiving subsidy. Due to some of <br />15 the changes implemented for part time care and due to the time needed to enroll new children, <br />16 the expenses for this year will be below the $5,023,956 and 820 children originally anticipated. <br />17 The new estimate for children served during this fiscal year will be 724 per month and currently <br />18 807 are receiving subsidy. <br />19 <br />20 Although the original estimate for state child care revenue was $3.4 million, DSS has actually <br />21 received $4.4 million after several reallocations. With these changes, the agency anticipates <br />22 approximately $150,000 in county funds remaining in the child care fund on June 30, 2015. All <br />23 estimates in this abstract also include the cost to continue serving the children impacted by the <br />24 change in income eligibility and family composition implemented by the North Carolina General <br />25 Assembly last year (school age children below 133% of the Federal Poverty Level and children <br />26 living with relatives other than parents). <br />27 <br />28 Given that the children who have been served from the waitlist will continue to be served next <br />29 year, the cost for next year is estimated at $4,342,500 assuming average attrition and taking no <br />30 new children from the waitlist. Since the state estimate has again been reduced to $3.4 million, <br />31 the budget approved by the Social Services Board and submitted to the County Manager <br />32 includes an increase of $639,000 in County dollars to cover the cost of currently enrolled <br />33 children. This estimate does not allow for clearing the current waitlist or serving children as <br />34 attrition occurs. These funds, if appropriated, would serve an average of 724 children per <br />35 month. There are currently 115 children on the waiting list and the agency estimates that 100 <br />36 children would receive services if the waiting list was cleared through June 30, 2015. The <br />37 Department has been studying ways to eliminate the current waitlist. Based on conversations <br />38 with state officials, the Department anticipates receiving an additional $300,000 above the <br />39 estimated $3.4 million in the DSS proposed 2015 -2016 budget. The Department believes that <br />40 approximately 800 children per month could be served with the funds in the budget <br />41 recommended by the Social Services Board. If there is some shortage of funds to meet this <br />42 need, the Department could cover these costs by moving any unexpended funds from other line <br />43 items during the year. Therefore the Department recommends clearing the current waitlist and <br />44 continuing without a waitlist through June 30, 2015. <br />45 <br />46 Another stated goal of the Board of County Commissioners is to eliminate the waitlist on an <br />47 ongoing basis. Trend data has been analyzed by the Department and the highest number of <br />48 children served when there was no waitlist was 928. The trends also show that on average <br />49 approximately 30 children are added to the waitlist each month and 12 terminate from subsidy <br />50 each month. Based on this net increase of 18 children being added to the subsidy program <br />