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STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br />PROJECTION TYPE <br />DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS <br />FORMULA <br />ASSUMPTIONS <br />Tischer Linear (OCS & <br />CHCCS) <br />Mathematical formula; straight tine projection <br />�((c*b) *x) +b <br />y--projected population; c= historical annual change; b =base year; x= projection yeas <br />Historical growth is reflected in projected growth <br />BYM + (BYI + 5(n)) = EYM EYM * %SL = EYMISL <br />Base year growth reflects 10 -year average; <br />OCP Linear Wave <br />Mathematical linear with percent variation among school <br />t3YM= base year 2nd month membership; BYI = yearstudent membership increment <br />increase in BYi of 5 every other year reflects <br />(OCS) <br />levels; reflects progressing waves of membership <br />o o <br />base; EYM= ensuing year membership; n= projection year; /oSL= /o of total <br />increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br />membership per school level (i.e. elementary, middle, high); EYMISL =ensuing year <br />constraints <br />member by school level <br />SYM + (BYI - 15(n)) = EYM EYM * %SL = EYMISL <br />Base year growth reflects 10 -year average; <br />OCP linear (Nave <br />Mathematical linear with percent variation among school <br />BYM= base year 2nd month membership; BYI =yearstudent membership increment <br />decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010 -2011 <br />(CHCCS) <br />levels; reflects progressing waves of membership <br />base; EYM= ensuing year membership; n= projection year; %SL =% of total <br />membership per school level (i.e. elementary, middle, high); EYMISL =ensuing year <br />reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br />member by school level <br />buildout constraints <br />K„ =kn. € +(It,,.€ *0.01) <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />n =1 <br />advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each <br />a =(£ G„ I g,3) 13 <br />Assumes a 1 % annual growth rate for the <br />3 -Year Cohort (OCS & <br />grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />n =3 <br />kindergarten grade leve €; assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />b =g n-1 (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K= kindergarten membership; n =given school year; G =given grade's <br />graduate to the next level each year <br />andlor historical growth rates <br />membership(other than kindergarten); g= previous grade's membership; a= average <br />advancement rate; b= projected membership <br />K. = k n -r + (k�1 * 0.01) <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />n =1 <br />advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each <br />a =(i G„ 15 <br />Assumes a 1 % annual growth rate for the <br />5 year Cohort (OCS & <br />grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />n =5 <br />kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />b =g.., (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K= kindergarten membership; n =given school year; G =given grade's <br />graduate to the next level each year <br />and/or historical growth rates <br />membership(other than kindergarten); g= previous grade's membership; a= average <br />advancement rate; b= projected membership <br />K„ =k,,.€ +(k,l *0.01) <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />n =1 <br />advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each <br />a =(£ G„ 19,1) 110 <br />Assumes a I% annual growth rate for the <br />10 yearCohort (OCS & <br />grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />n =10 <br />kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />b =9 n-1 (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade [eves <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K= kindergarten membership; n =given school year; G =given grade's <br />graduate to the next level each year <br />andfor historical growth rates <br />membership(other than kindergarten); g= previous grade's membership; a= average <br />advancement rate; b= projected membership <br />i <br />.ter <br />r9 <br />rD <br />rDO <br />i—i <br />in <br />C <br />rz <br />O <br />r <br />E <br />C <br />r9 <br />O <br />r9 <br />n <br />O <br />O <br />d <br />r9 <br />0 <br />O <br />W <br />N <br />