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during periods of overcapacity. In essence, a deferral of development until the school is <br />programmed. <br />6. Student Projection Analysis <br />Student membership projections are shown to increase at all levels in both schools as shown <br />on page 49 of the report. <br />7. Orange County Schools Systems; CIP Needs Analysis <br />CHCCS <br />Projected need for: <br />New Elementary #10 in 2008-2009 <br />New Elementary #11 in 2010-2011 <br />New Elementary #12 in 2016-2017 <br />New Middle School #5 in 2013-2014 <br />Expanded High School 2015-2016 <br />OCS <br />Projected needs: <br />None for Elementary, Middle or High School in the next 10 years <br />However, the SAPFOTAC report notes that development approval activity within the portion <br />of the City of Mebane that lies within Orange County has been significant in recent years. <br />Because the City of Mebane is not a party to the SAPFO, CAPS are not required to be <br />issued by the local government prior to development approvals. At this time, there are <br />approximately 1,000 approved but undeveloped residential subdivision lots within the portion <br />of Mebane that lies within Orange County. Development of these lots is projected to <br />generate almost 300 additional students (over the three school levels) at current student <br />generation rates. Once students actually enter the school system, faster enrollment <br />increases will change projections and probably identify CIP needs within 10 years. <br />8. Student Generation Rates <br />The report also notes that Orange County contracted with Tischler & Associates in 2007 to <br />study and, if necessary, update student generation rates. Results of the consultant's <br />analysis are expected to be released in June 2008. <br />9. Access to Full Report <br />The draft SAPFOTAC report has been posted on the Orange County Planning Department's <br />web site. A letter and the Executive Summary of the report will be sent to all SAPFO <br />partners after this BOCC meeting advising them of the availability of the draft report and <br />inviting comment. <br />It is anticipated that the draft SAPFOTAC report will be brought back to the BOCC for <br />certification at the June 24, 2008 regular meeting. <br />FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show future needs for <br />additional schools in the CHCCS District. Partially because of the reduction in capacity in 2008- <br />09 related to State reduced class size legislation, CHCCS Elementary School #11 is projected <br />to be needed in 2010-11. CHCCS Middle School #5 is projected to be needed in 2012-13, <br />