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X <br />2015 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary <br />I. Base Memorandum of Understanding <br />A. Level of Service ........................................ ............................(No Change) ........ Pg. 1 <br />B. Building Capacity and Membership .................................. (Change) .............. Pg. 2 <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />Elementa <br />105% <br />105% <br />Middle <br />107% <br />107% <br />Hi h <br />110% <br />110% <br />B. Building Capacity and Membership .................................. (Change) .............. Pg. 2 <br />C. Membership Date — November 15 ........... ............................(No Change) ........ Pg.] 7 <br />II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br />A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ............... ............................(No Change) ........ Pg. 18 <br />B. Student Membership Projection Methodology .................(No Change) ........ Pg. 19 <br />The average of 3, 5, and 10 year history /cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. <br />C. Student Membership Projections ....................................... (Change) .............. Pg. 30 <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2014 -15 School Year — Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools <br />Chapel HiltlCarrboro <br />School District <br />Orange County <br />School District <br />was low compared to the actual, whereas an "H" indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. <br />Capacity <br />Membership <br />Increase from <br />Prior Year <br />Capacity <br />Membership <br />Increase from <br />Prior Year <br />Elementary <br />5829 <br />5541 <br />(13) <br />3694 <br />3259 <br />(174) <br />Middle <br />2944 <br />2861 <br />3 <br />1 2166 <br />1762 <br />15 <br />High <br />3875 <br />3730 <br />(34) <br />1 2439 <br />2502 <br />81 <br />C. Membership Date — November 15 ........... ............................(No Change) ........ Pg.] 7 <br />II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br />A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ............... ............................(No Change) ........ Pg. 18 <br />B. Student Membership Projection Methodology .................(No Change) ........ Pg. 19 <br />The average of 3, 5, and 10 year history /cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. <br />C. Student Membership Projections ....................................... (Change) .............. Pg. 30 <br />Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2014 -15 School Year — Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools <br />(The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2014 -2015 in that given year. The second column <br />for each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership. An "L" indicates the projection <br />was low compared to the actual, whereas an "H" indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. <br />Year Projection Made for 2014 -15 Membership <br />Actual 2014 <br />2009 -2010 <br />2010 -2011 <br />2011 -2012 <br />2012 -2013 <br />2013 -2014 <br />Membership <br />Elementary <br />5541 <br />5772 <br />H231 <br />5672 <br />H131 <br />5784 <br />H243 <br />5676 <br />H135 <br />5635 <br />H94 <br />Middle <br />2861 <br />3006 <br />H145 <br />2894 <br />H33 <br />2930 <br />H69 <br />2934 <br />H73 <br />2925 <br />H64 <br />High <br />3730 <br />3867 <br />H137 <br />3846 <br />H116 <br />3863 <br />H133 <br />3866 <br />H136 <br />3805 <br />H75 <br />1 <br />