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53 <br />Section II <br />D. Student Membership Growth Rate <br />1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — The updating of this section will be <br />conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br />Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual <br />report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br />comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br />2. Definition The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections <br />resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10 year numerical <br />membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not <br />represent the year -by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative, but rather the <br />average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next ten (10) years. <br />3. Standard for: <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br />See Attachment ILD.2 <br />4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br />Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br />The membership figures and percentage growth on the <br />Standard for: <br />Orange County School District <br />See Attachment ILD.2 <br />Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br />Orange County School District <br />The membership figures and percentage growth on the <br />attachments show continued growth at each school level attachments show continued growth at each school level <br />within the system. <br />Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next <br />ten years: <br />Year Projection <br />Made: <br />2010- <br />2011 <br />2011- <br />2012 <br />2012- <br />2013 <br />2013- <br />2014 <br />2014 - <br />2015 <br />Elementary <br />1.44% <br />1.59% <br />1.18% <br />1.44% <br />1.11% <br />Middle <br />1.67% <br />1.94% <br />1.59% <br />1.58% <br />1.15% <br />High <br />1.57% <br />1.73% <br />1.60% <br />1.27% <br />1.22% <br />5. Recommendation: <br />Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District <br />Use statistics as noted. <br />within the system. <br />Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next <br />ten years: <br />Year Projection <br />Made: <br />2010- <br />2011 <br />2011- <br />2012 <br />2012- <br />2013 <br />2013- <br />2014 <br />2014 - <br />2015 <br />Elementary <br />1.57% <br />1.6% <br />1.31% <br />1.30% <br />0.55% <br />Middle <br />1.84% <br />2.01% <br />1.64% <br />1.42% <br />0.09% <br />High <br />1.59% <br />1.61% <br />1.43% <br />1.35% <br />0.39% <br />Recommendation: <br />Orange County School District <br />Use statistics as noted. <br />39 <br />