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Section II <br />CA EA! <br />C. Student Membership Projections <br />1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change — The updating of this section will be <br />conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br />Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report <br />certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br />comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br />2. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models <br />represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level <br />(Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district (Chapel Hill /Carrboro School <br />District and Orange County School District). <br />3. Standard for: Standard for: <br />Chapel Hill Carrboro School District <br />The 5 model average discussed in Section <br />ILB (Student Projection Methodology) <br />See Attachment ILC.4 <br />4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br />Orange County School District <br />The 5 model average discussed in Section <br />ILB (Student Projection Methodology) <br />See Attachment ILC.3 <br />The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show continued <br />growth in both systems. Average projected growth rates in the next 10 years for both <br />school systems are showing a projected decrease in the increase, but are still showing <br />average positive growth. Chapel Hill /Carrboro Schools projected average annual <br />growth rates have decreased slightly, but remained positive. Future growth rates show <br />varying, but continuous positive growth in the 10 year projection period for <br />elementary, middle, and high school levels. Projected average annual growth rates for <br />Orange County Schools have significantly decreased, but remained positive. Orange <br />County Schools' future growth rates show varying positive and negative growth in <br />the 10 year projection period for elementary, middle, and high school levels. <br />Attachment ILC.3 and Attachment ILC.4 show year by year percent growth and <br />projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were updated using current <br />(November 14, 2014) memberships. Membership numbers were collected on <br />November 14 due to November 15 falling on a Saturday in 2014. Ten years of student <br />membership were projected thereafter. <br />30 <br />