Orange County NC Website
Browse       Search
Attachment 11.13.3 — Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2014 -15) <br />Section II (page 4 of 4) <br />Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District <br />School Membership 2014 -2015 School Year (November 14, 2014) <br />Statistical Findings <br />PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br />`TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) <br />10 -YEAR COHORT (10C) <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) <br />5 -YEAR COHORT (5C) <br />3 -YEAR COHORT (3C) <br />Elementary School Level <br />• Projections were all high, ranging from 69 students to 114 students high. On average, <br />the projections were 94 students higher than the actual membership. <br />• The actual membership decreased by 13 students between November 15, 2013 and <br />November 14, 2014. Part of this decrease could be due to the opening of a new charter <br />school in Hillsborough this year. It is suspected that many of the charter school students <br />were previously enrolled in one of the school districts located in Orange County. <br />Middle School Level <br />• Projections were all high, ranging from 28 students to 96 students high. On average, the <br />projections were 64 students higher than the actual membership. <br />• The actual membership increased by 3 students between November 15, 2013 and <br />November 14, 2014. <br />High School Level <br />Projections were all high, ranging from 31 students to 145 students high. On average, <br />the projections were 75 students higher than the actual membership. <br />The actual membership decreased by 34 students between November 15, 2013 and <br />November 14, 2014. <br />TOTAL <br />The total of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 180 students to 287 <br />students above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 233 <br />students. <br />• The membership decreased in total by 44 students, which is the sum of -13 at <br />Elementary, +3 at Middle, and -34 at High. <br />29 <br />