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Attachment 11.13.3 — Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2014 -15) <br />Section II (page 2 of 4) <br />Orange County School District <br />School Membership 2014 -2015 School Year (November 14, 2014) <br />Statistical Findings <br />PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br />`TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) <br />10 -YEAR COHORT (10C) <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) <br />5 -YEAR COHORT (5C) <br />3 -YEAR COHORT 3C <br />Elementary School Level <br />• Projections were all high, ranging from 198 students to 234 students high. On average, <br />the projections were 213 students higher than actual membership. <br />• The membership actually decreased by 174 students between November 15, 2013 and <br />November 14, 2014. Part of this decrease could be due to the opening of a new charter <br />school in Hillsborough this year. It is suspected that many of the charter school students <br />were previously enrolled in one of the school districts located in Orange County. <br />Middle School Level <br />• Projections were all high, ranging from 15 students to 37 students high. On average, the <br />projections were 27 students higher than the actual membership. <br />• The membership actually increased by 15 students between November 15, 2013 and <br />November 14, 2014. <br />High School Level <br />• Projections were all low, ranging from 39 students to 208 students low. On average, the <br />projections were 96 students lower than the actual membership. <br />• The membership actually increased by 81 students between November 15, 2013 and <br />November 14, 2014. <br />TOTAL <br />• The totals of all school level projections were high, ranging from 52 to 211 above actual <br />membership. On average, the projections were high by 144 students. <br />• The membership decreased in total by 78 students, which is the sum of -174 at <br />Elementary, +15 at Middle, and +81 at High. <br />27 <br />