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Attachment IL13.2 — Student Membership Projection Models Performance AnaPy9 s (2013 -14) <br />Section II (page 4 of 4) <br />Chapel Hill /Carrboro School District <br />School Membership 2013 -2014 School Year (November 15, 2013) <br />Statistical Findings <br />PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br />`TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) <br />10 -YEAR COHORT (10C) <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) <br />5 -YEAR COHORT (5C) <br />3 -YEAR COHORT (3C) <br />Elementary School Level <br />• Projections were all high, ranging from 29 students to 89 students high. On average, the <br />projections were 58 students higher than the actual membership. <br />• The actual membership increased by 11 students between November 15, 2012 and <br />November 15, 2013. <br />Middle School Level <br />• Projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 23 students low to 30 students high. <br />On average, the projections were 4 students higher than the actual membership. <br />• The actual membership increased by 73 students between November 15, 2012 and <br />November 15, 2013. <br />High School Level <br />Projections were all high, ranging from 18 students to 126 students high. On average, <br />the projections were 64 students higher than the actual membership. <br />The actual membership decreased by 32 students between November 15, 2012 and <br />November 15, 2013. <br />TOTAL <br />• The total of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 62 students to 197 <br />students above actual membership. On average, the projections were high by 126 <br />students. <br />• The membership increased in total by 52 students, which is the sum of +11 at <br />Elementary, +73 at Middle, and -32 at High. <br />25 <br />