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Attachment 11.13.2 — Student Membership Projection Models Performance Ana y sis (2013 -14) <br />Section II (page 2 of 4) <br />Orange County School District <br />School Membership 2013 -2014 School Year (November 15, 2013) <br />Statistical Findings <br />PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br />`TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) <br />10 -YEAR COHORT (10C) <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) <br />5 -YEAR COHORT (5C) <br />3 -YEAR COHORT 3C <br />Elementary School Level <br />• Projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 22 students low to 29 students high. <br />The average of the projections equaled actual student membership. <br />• The membership actually increased by 30 students between November 15, 2012 and <br />November 15, 2013. <br />Middle School Level <br />• Projections were mixed low and high, ranging from 38 students low to 8 students high. <br />On average, the projections were 14 students lower than the actual membership. <br />• The membership actually increased by 63 students between November 15, 2012 and <br />November 15, 2013. <br />High School Level <br />• Projections were all low ranging from 54 students to 87 students low. On average, the <br />projections were 66 students lower than the actual membership. <br />• The membership actually increased by 106 students between November 15, 2012 and <br />November 15, 2013. <br />TOTAL <br />• The totals of all school level projections were low, ranging from 69 to 101 below actual <br />membership. On average, the projections were low by 80 students. <br />• The membership increased in total by 199 students, which is the sum of +30 at <br />Elementary, +63 at Middle, and +106 at High. <br />23 <br />