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STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br />PROJECTION TYPE <br />DESCRIPTION I CHARACTERISTICS <br />FORMULA <br />ASSUMPTIONS <br />Tischer Linear (OCS & <br />CHCCS) <br />Mathematical formula; straight line projection <br />y=((c*b) *x) +b <br />y--projected population; c= historical annual change; b =base year; x= projection years <br />Historical growth is reflected in projected growth <br />BYM + (BYI + 5(n)) = EYM EYM * %SL = EYMISL <br />Base year growth reflects 10-year average: <br />OCP Linear Wave <br />Mathematical linear with percent variation among school <br />BYM= base year 2nd month membership; BYl =year student membership increment <br />increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br />(OCS) <br />levels; reflects progressing waves of membership <br />° <br />base; EYM= ensuing year membership; n- projection year; /oSL= ° total <br />increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br />membership per school level (i.e. elementary, middle, high); EYMISL= e ns uing year <br />constraints <br />member by school level <br />BYM + (BYI - 15(n)) = EYM EYM * °/oSL = EYMISL <br />Base year growth reflects 10- year average; <br />OCP Linear Wave <br />Mathematical linear with percent variation among school <br />BYM= base year 2nd month membership; BYl =year student membership increment <br />decrease in BY1 of 15 until school year 2010 -2011 <br />(CHCCS) <br />levels; reflects progressing waves of membership <br />base; EYM = ensuing year membership; n= projection year; %SL =% of total <br />reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br />membership per school level (i.e. elementary, middle, high); EYM /SL= ensuing year <br />buildout constraints <br />member by school level <br />K„ =kn.t +(k.,1 *0.09) <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />"=I <br />advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each <br />a =(£ G„ I g„_j)13 <br />Assumes a 1 % annual growth rate for the <br />3 -Year Cohort (OCS & <br />grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />n =3 <br />kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />b =g n_1 (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K= kindergarten membership; n =given school year; G =given grade's <br />graduate to the next level each year <br />andfor historical growth rates <br />membership(other than kindergarten); g= previous grade's membership; a= average <br />advancement rate; b= projected membership <br />K„= kn_i +(k�, *0.01) <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />n =1 <br />advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each <br />a =(£ G„ ! 9� 4) 15 <br />Assumes a 1 % annual growth rate for the <br />5 year Cohort (OCS & <br />grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />n =5 <br />kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />b =g n,1 (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K= kindergarten membership; n =given school year; G =given grade's <br />graduate to the next level each year <br />andfor historical growth rates <br />membership(other than kindergarten); g= previous grade's membership; a= average <br />advancement rate; b= projected membership <br />K„ =k.., +(k,.1 *0.01) <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average <br />n =1 <br />advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each <br />a =(£ G„ 19,1) 110 <br />Assumes a I% annual growth rate for the <br />10 year Cohort (OCS & <br />grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />n =10 <br />kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br />CHCCS) <br />projected membership by school level; an assumed <br />bldg n -1 (a) <br />percentage of students in each grade level <br />kindergarten membership is based on birth records <br />K= kindergarten membership; n =given school year; G =given grade's <br />graduate to the next level each year <br />andfor historical growth rates <br />membership(other than kindergarten); g= previous grade's membership; a= average <br />advancement rate; b =projected membership <br />i <br />.ter <br />n <br />rD <br />0 <br />00 <br />lzCrD <br />rDi—r <br />0 <br />r <br />E <br />C <br />rD <br />K <br />v, <br />0 <br />r <br />0 <br />0 <br />d <br />rD <br />v, <br />o� <br />0 <br />v, <br />!si <br />